Was the Indigo Crisis Deliberate?

 Background

Indigo, India's largest airline, faced an unprecedented operational crisis between the 2nd and 8th of December. It paralyzed the aviation system- with several hundred flights cancelled daily, chaotic airports, passengers protesting, and exploding fares. 

Cause of Crisis

• The primary reason for the crisis was the DGCA's new FTDL (flight duty time limitations) regulations coming into effect.
• These FTDL norms follow the international standard of crew rest, complementing passenger safety.
• Notably, pilot rest hours increased from 36 to 48, night landings reduced from 6 to 2, and pilots' personal leaves cannot count as rest.
• Indigo 'miscalculated' their crew requirements.

Indigo did not 'Miscalculate'

Contrary to the previous point, Indigo did not miscalculate their crew requirements. These regulations were brought to their notice on January 1, 2024. They had nearly 2 years to hire new pilots, yet they took no action. Companies like Indigo have sophisticated rostering software and professionals who would not allow such a massive 'mistake' to go unnoticed. 

In fact, they knew their schedules would break. They knew flights would get cancelled. They knew there would be chaos once these rules came into effect. They actually increased their flights by 6% for the winter schedule. 

Weaponising Scale

Indigo controls ~60% of India's aviation market. When a carrier that large collapses, the entire system collapses with it. Indigo being an LCC (low-cost carrier), operates tight and aggressive schedules that some have compared to buses, did not appreciate these regulations, for they had to incur the cost of hiring more pilots. So, they used the public as their weapon. They used an immature pressure tactic, which involved cancelling thousands of flights to cause chaos and public outcry, essentially forcing the government into temporarily changing their regulations, and deterring the DGCA from ever bringing them back.

How Indigo Could Afford This

Indigo calculated this risk and exploited the effective duopoly they had in the industry. They understood that temporary reputational damage would be survivable. Passengers had limited options, and the government could not allow prolonged national disruption.

Conclusion

This was not a 'mistake' as the airline portrayed it, but rather a calculated pressure tactic aiming to coerce the DGCA (Directorate General of Civil Aviation) into reversing their regulations. The airline's disingenuous behaviour has induced national scrutiny and has disconcerted the industry. They prioritised profit and operational convenience over passenger safety.

This article is an opinion-based analysis and does not allege legal wrongdoing.